With Republicans holding a 53-47 majority in the US Senate, Democrats need to flip at least two seats in states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to take control of the chamber. What was once viewed as a long shot has become a realistic possibility as several closely watched races enter the final stretch.
From Republican-held seats in traditionally conservative states to Democratic defenses in key battlegrounds, these 10 races could determine which party controls the Senate after the November midterm elections.
Georgia: Democrats Focus On Holding Their Ground
Senator Jon Ossoff is a major Democratic priority in Georgia, where Trump won by just 2 points in 2024. Ossoff faces Republican US Representative Mike Collins. Recent polling has shown Ossoff with a double-digit lead, giving Democrats confidence as they seek to protect one of their existing Senate seats. Republicans have nevertheless remained active in the race, making Georgia an important part of the broader battle for Senate control.
Michigan: A Test For Democrats’ Progressive Strategy
Michigan is another Democratic-held seat that the party cannot afford to lose. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated establishment favorite Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary and now faces former US Representative Mike Rogers.
The race could be the tightest contest for a Democratic-held Senate seat this cycle. El-Sayed has received support from prominent Democrats, while recent polls have given him a narrow advantage. A Democratic loss here would make the party’s path to a Senate majority significantly more difficult.
New Hampshire: Democrats Defend An Open Seat
New Hampshire presents another challenge for Democrats following the retirement of Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Democratic US Representative Chris Pappas is running against former US Senator John Sununu. Pappas has maintained a consistent polling advantage in recent surveys. However, Republicans have worked to close the gap, making the open-seat contest one to watch as Election Day approaches.
Maine: Republicans Face A Serious Challenge
Maine is Democrats’ top offensive opportunity because Republican Senator Susan Collins is seeking reelection in a state Harris carried by nearly 7 points in 2024. Collins has repeatedly distanced herself from Trump, while Democrats are seeking to tie her record to key Republican policies and her role in confirming Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
The Democratic race also went through a dramatic shake-up after nominee Graham Platner withdrew following sexual assault allegations, which he denied. Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson subsequently emerged as the replacement nominee.
Despite the disruption, recent polls have shown Jackson leading Collins, putting the Republican incumbent under serious pressure.
North Carolina: Republicans Shift Resources
North Carolina has emerged as a favorable opportunity for Democrats after Republican Senator Thom Tillis decided not to seek reelection. Democrats recruited former Governor Roy Cooper, while Republicans nominated former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley.
Cooper has consistently led in polling, at times by double digits. Republicans have spent heavily in the race but have increasingly shifted resources toward Kansas, suggesting North Carolina may be moving away from the GOP’s top tier of competitive contests.
Trump won the state by 3 points in 2024.
Ohio: One Of The Biggest Senate Battlegrounds
Ohio is particularly important because it is one of four states Trump won by double digits in 2024 — and Democrats need to flip at least two such states to control the Senate. Former Senator Sherrod Brown is attempting to return to the Senate after losing his seat last cycle. He faces Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance after Vance left the Senate for the White House.
The race has become one of the country’s most expensive Senate contests and remains a toss-up, with both candidates leading in recent polls at different points.
Alaska: Ranked-Choice Voting Adds Another Twist
Alaska could deliver another major upset. Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024, but Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is facing former Representative Mary Peltola.
The state’s ranked-choice voting system adds another layer of uncertainty. Voters will rank candidates, with Sullivan, Peltola and another candidate named Dan Sullivan among the choices.
Recent polling has shown Peltola either leading or tied with the Republican incumbent, making Alaska another double-digit Trump state where Democrats see an opening.
Iowa: Trump’s 13-Point State In Play
Iowa is also drawing attention as Republicans defend an open seat in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Republican Senator Joni Ernst is not seeking reelection, leaving Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek to compete for the seat.
Hinson has called for an immediate end to the Iran war, arguing that Iowans should not have to bear its economic costs, although she has also opposed Democratic resolutions seeking an end to the war. Recent polling shows both candidates with narrow leads at different points, keeping the contest competitive.
Texas: Can Democrats Break A Three-Decade Streak?
Texas represents one of the biggest potential Democratic breakthroughs. No Democrat has won statewide in the state since 1994.
State Representative James Talarico is attempting to change that against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, making the race a major test of whether Democrats can overcome the state’s deep Republican lean.
Paxton emerged from a Republican primary runoff after defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn, despite Washington Republicans viewing Cornyn as having a stronger path in the general election. Recent polling has ranged from a tie to Talarico holding a lead, keeping the race firmly on the national radar.
Kansas: A New Democratic Opportunity
Kansas has moved into contention as the political environment has shifted in Democrats’ favor. Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024, but Republicans are now diverting resources to protect Senator Roger Marshall.
Marshall faces Adam Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch founding pastor. Marshall has maintained an advantage in fundraising and cash on hand, but Democrats have been spending aggressively in the race. Recent polls have shown Hamilton leading by between 1 and 5 points, turning what once appeared to be a safe Republican seat into a competitive contest.
