New York Governor Kathy Hochul is leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by just three percentage points ahead of their only scheduled debate in the 2026 gubernatorial election, according to a new poll released on Tuesday.
The Pollfinity survey found that Democrat Hochul had the support of 47 per cent of voters, compared with 44 per cent for Blakeman, the Republican Nassau County executive. Around 6 per cent of respondents remained undecided, while 3 per cent said they intended to vote for other candidates.
When undecided voters were asked which candidate they were leaning towards, Hochul’s lead widened slightly, with the candidates polling at 48 per cent and 44 per cent, respectively.
The survey questioned 499 New Yorkers between October 8 and 12. Its findings differ from several other recent polls that showed Hochul holding a more substantial advantage over Blakeman.
An October 8 survey by Emerson College and PIX11, which interviewed 900 voters, placed Hochul ahead by 12 percentage points, at 52 per cent against Blakeman’s 40 per cent. Eight per cent of respondents were undecided.
A Siena University poll conducted in late September showed a narrower gap, with Hochul leading Blakeman by 50 per cent to 40 per cent.
Hochul’s Approval Rating Under Pressure
The latest Pollfinity survey also indicated a decline in support for Hochul since June, when she led Blakeman by 50 per cent to 40 per cent.
Her approval rating stood at 43 per cent, while 53 per cent of respondents disapproved of her performance since she took office in 2022.
The findings suggest that the New York governor faces a competitive re-election contest as both candidates prepare to make their case to voters during Tuesday’s debate.
Pollfinity, an independent polling organisation founded in 2026 by California Libertarian Lars Mapstead, conducted the survey. Its findings contrast with other recent measurements of the race, highlighting differences in how pollsters assess the candidates’ standing ahead of the election.
