After several comprehensive victories by the West Indies’ Test cricketers in England, the cricketing world celebrated the “Blackwash”. Now, the United States of America could wake up to a “Bluewash” in a day or two. The opinion polls, almost unanimously, predict a Democratic Party victory in the mid-term elections. There’s a caveat, though: in the past, Trump or his people have often done a percentage point or two better than the opinion polls suggested.
Long before he was elected President, Barack Obama pointed out that it wasn’t about red states and blue states; it was all about the United States. Nevertheless, with the United States such a 50:50 country, a wipeout becomes an eye-watering moment for the party shredded by the electorate, and an unprecedented moment of celebration for the winners.
Which is why the nail-biting Senate contests in key red states like Texas, Alaska and, good lord, Kansas, are so significant. In all the battleground states, including Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Maine and Michigan, the Democrats are at least competitive. But Texas and Kansas are interesting, with both Democratic candidates, James Talarico in Texas and Adam Hamilton in Kansas, ahead, even if by five per cent or less.
Kansas last elected a Democratic senator in 1932, as part of Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal victory. Hamilton is a priest in his sixties, a centrist who refers to himself as a “liberal-conservative” or a “conservative-liberal”. He has held on to his lead in a state of three million people for months. Talarico is only 37 and a divinity student. He has a razor-thin lead in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen, Michael Dukakis’s running mate in 1988, an election in which the Democrats frittered away a 17-point lead. Bentsen, a Tory Democrat, won 38 years ago.
Donald Trump won Texas, a state with 40 electoral votes, by 1.5 million votes in the last presidential election. And yes, Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, is controversial. But if Talarico, on the verge of victory, actually wins, it will be quite a feat.
Maine and Michigan have often gone blue, but Trump won Michigan in the last presidential election with nearly 50 per cent of the vote. This time, Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat, has a handsome lead. And El-Sayed is still, even in the era of Mamdani, an unfamiliar-sounding name for the average American. Susan Collins, the acclaimed senator from Maine, is trailing her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson. Sure, then Vice President Kamala Harris won Maine in the 2024 presidential election, but Collins, one of the last Rockefeller Republicans, is a doughty candidate with a well-funded campaign.
Currently, the US Senate has 53 Republicans and 45 Democrats, who are usually supported by two independents. If the Democrats can hold the three seats in Georgia, New Hampshire and Michigan, where they lead, and win any four of the Republican-held seats in Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Ohio, they will take over the Senate. The House of Representatives, for all the gerrymandering in one or two states, looks set to go to the Democrats. It is entirely possible that the House will turn blue, with the Democrats increasing their tally from 214 to about 235. Some estimates are even higher.
Of course, the ruling party usually loses seats in the mid-terms, and since the Second World War there have been only two exceptions. Trump himself lost 42 House seats during his first term, and Obama, in 2010, lost a staggering 64, along with nine Senate seats. A 20-seat gain and a Democratic Senate will pose serious challenges to Trump.
Why Are Democrats Ahead?
President Trump’s popularity levels are low, very low. There are five reasons for his political difficulties.
- Inflation is always a no-no, and there is a belief that if gas prices cross $4 a gallon, there will be unhappiness. That is exactly what has happened.
- Then there is the Iran war, which barely a third of Americans consider acceptable. It has been a long war, dragging on since February 28, and a hugely expensive one. This, naturally, has sent fuel prices shooting up.
- His decisions on tariffs may have fed inflation as well.
- Trump’s immigration policies, once popular, may no longer be as acceptable, particularly in states like Texas.
- Besides, the Epstein scandal is a dark cloud. The British government has taken action, and while there is no evidence of Trump’s involvement as yet, it has created considerable ill-feeling.
What Can A Democratic-Controlled Congress Do?
If the Democrats control both Houses, a logjam will be inevitable. The Senate can delay or block the appointment of Cabinet members, judges and other officials. The Democrats will be responsible for legislation and, worryingly for Trump, could begin investigations into him and his family. Then there is the war against Iran.
Can the Democrats stop the war? It will not be easy at all. Yes, Congress can try to restrict funding, but there is also the presidential veto. It can hold hearings and launch investigations to make things difficult for the White House. Trump remains unpopular, and a section of the Democrats may even think of impeachment.
Either way, whether Trump becomes a lame duck remains to be seen, but he will certainly face a hostile, uncooperative and difficult Congress.
