With just two days left before the US midterm elections, leaders from both parties are making a final push to win over voters, as the rising cost of living and the economic fallout of the US-Israel war on Iran dominate the campaign.
Democrats continue to lead Republicans in national polls, but several closely contested Senate races could determine which party controls Congress. President Donald Trump is campaigning for Republican candidates, while Democrats are seeking to turn voter dissatisfaction over the economy into electoral gains.
More than 51 million Americans have already cast their ballots, although early voting figures do not indicate which party is ahead.
Here is the latest on the US midterms as the campaign enters its final stretch:
What Do The Latest US Midterm Polls Show?
Democrats continue to hold a lead over Republicans in national polling, according to the latest RealClearPolling average. The party is ahead by 51.5% to 43.1%.
A THP/MM survey conducted on October 28 and 29 put Democrats ahead by 54% to 41%. An Emerson College poll conducted between October 24 and 26 also showed a 10-point Democratic advantage.
Democrats have opened a seven-point lead over Republicans in the race for control of Congress, with voters expressing growing dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and his handling of the economy, according to a new NBC News poll.
The survey, conducted among registered voters between October 28 and 30, found that 52% preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 45% who wanted Republicans to retain control.
However, the national picture does not necessarily reflect the state of individual Senate contests.
In Kansas, a Washington Post-Schar School poll released on Friday showed Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton leading Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 52% to 43%. An Emerson College survey indicated a narrower contest, with Hamilton ahead by 50% to 47%.
The outcome of several closely fought races could prove decisive in determining control of the Senate.
What Happened On The Campaign Trail?
Donald Trump returned to campaigning for the day in Dubuque, Iowa, where he headlined the first of two campaign events slated for him today.
Trump’s appearance was initially canceled, along with another event planned for Salina, Kansas, raising some concerns that the president was abdicating his plans to campaign up until the midterm elections. But the president reversed course, rescheduling both events, in addition to a long slate of remote tele-rallies planned for candidates across the country.
Speaking to one of his final campaign crowds of the midterms in Iowa, Donald Trump praised congresswoman Ashley Hinson, the state’s Republican Senate nominee, for losing weight. “I knew Ashley for a long time, and she was a little bit heavier. She was,” Trump said. After being briefly interrupted by protesters in the crowd, he concluded: “She put herself in shape, she’s in perfect shape.”
The Michigan Senate race saw a fresh development on Sunday after Representative Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed, endorsed Republican candidate Mike Rogers.
Stevens, who represents areas outside Detroit, appeared alongside Rogers at a church service before announcing her endorsement. The move could complicate Democratic efforts in a state where recent polls have shown a narrow contest. “I do not belong in Abdul’s campaign,” Stevens said in a video posted on social media.
El-Sayed has also faced an increased wave of Islamophobic attacks during the campaign.
Meanwhile, Trump will not travel to campaign for Republican candidates on Monday. Instead, the president is expected to deliver remarks in Washington at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. Explaining the decision, Trump said he wanted “to show how beautiful it is”.
“It’s always leaked terribly, and it works really well now,” he told reporters, adding that the facility had previously been vandalised.
Final Campaign Push
With election day approaching, both parties are concentrating their closing arguments on the economy and affordability.
Democrats have sought to capitalise on voter concerns over everyday expenses, while Trump has held telephone rallies in support of Republican candidates in competitive races.
Republican strategist Heye said the party was struggling to persuade voters that its economic policies would improve their financial circumstances. Asked whether Republicans had found a convincing closing message, he said: “No, they haven’t. That’s a big part of their challenge.”
He argued that candidates needed to address the issues voters were raising, particularly the cost of energy, healthcare, groceries and other everyday expenses. “Families are making very real economic decisions; you have to address to them what you’re going to do to solve those problems,” Heye said.
Democrats, however, are also facing questions about what they would deliver if they regained control of Congress.
Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist and pollster working with El-Sayed’s campaign in Michigan, said voters’ perceptions of the party remained negative. “The feelings about the Democrats are negative, too, which is very different from, say, 2018, when Democrats were positively perceived,” she said.
Lake added that although many voters wanted change, they remained uncertain about what either party would do if elected.
Early Voting Update
More than 51 million Americans have already cast their ballots, according to reports, as both parties encourage voters to use mail-in voting or make plans to vote on Tuesday.
However, early voting figures do not establish which party voters have supported and cannot, by themselves, predict the election outcome.
Turnout is expected to be a major factor, particularly among younger voters and across the gender divide.
Lake said these would be important indicators to watch as the results come in. “Did Trump really rally the Republicans? Did the Democrats come out in record numbers?” she asked.
Political analyst Jackson said major shifts in the national political environment were unlikely in the final two days of campaigning. “It’s unlikely that anything really shifts in the national environment. We could see some local developments in some of these races, but by now things are pretty locked in,” Jackson said.
Can Democrats Take Control Of Congress?
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested in the November 3 midterm elections.
Republicans currently control both chambers. Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the House and four in the Senate to secure majorities in both.
Although national polling gives Democrats an advantage, the Senate contest is expected to be particularly challenging.
Key races in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina and Alaska could determine whether Democrats can wrest control of the chamber from Republicans.
A Democratic victory in either chamber would significantly affect Trump’s remaining two years in office, giving the party greater power to scrutinise his administration, block legislation and influence federal spending.
