With three days remaining before the US midterm elections, Democrats are leading national polls and are hoping to take control of Congress as millions of Americans cast their ballots early.
Democrats are strongly favoured to win the House of Representatives, while their advantage in the Senate is narrower. Several potentially decisive Senate races remain close enough to be affected by a normal polling error.
The outcome will determine which party controls the congressional agenda, leads key committees and oversees Trump’s administration during the final two years of his term.
What Are the Latest Polls and Forecasts Showing?
Midterm elections have traditionally been difficult for the party occupying the White House, giving voters an opportunity to check presidential power without removing the president from office. This year, Republicans risk losing not only their House majority but also their 53-47 advantage in the Senate.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure an outright Senate majority. Vice-President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie in favour of Republicans, meaning Democrats would need 51 seats to take control.
According to the latest national congressional ballot average by RealClearPolling, Democrats lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points, with 51.4% support against 43.2%.
An Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday found that 44% of registered voters expected Democrats to control the House after the election, compared with 31% who thought Republicans would retain it. Expectations for the Senate were much closer: 39% anticipated a Democratic majority, while 36% expected Republicans to remain in control.
Election forecasts also give Democrats an advantage in both chambers.
Silver Bulletin’s forecast, updated on 29 October, gave Democrats a 95.1% chance of winning the House, projecting an average of 240 Democratic seats against 195 Republican seats. It put their chances of taking the Senate at 77.7%, with an average projected split of 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican seats.
Decision Desk HQ, in its forecast updated at 07:25 on 29 October, gave Democrats an 80% chance of winning the House and a 60% chance of taking the Senate. It projected 238 Democratic seats in the House and 52 in the Senate.
VoteHub gave Democrats an 89% chance of controlling the House and a 63% chance of winning the Senate. It also put their chances of taking both chambers at 60%.
How Many Americans Have Voted Early?
More than 43 million Americans had already voted in person or returned mail-in ballots by five days before Election Day, according to an Associated Press analysis released on Friday.
That figure is nearly 10 million higher than the number recorded at the same point before the 2022 midterms. Some of the biggest increases have been reported in states with competitive Senate races.
In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early by Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same stage in 2022 — an increase of 50%.
Georgia had recorded more than 2.5 million ballots by Friday morning, exceeding the 2.3 million cast during the entire early voting period in 2022, according to Al Jazeera’s Matthew Torres.
Early voting was also up by more than 30% compared with the same period in 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, the AP analysis found.
However, early voting figures do not reveal which candidates voters have supported and cannot, on their own, predict the final election results.
