Oil prices have climbed to $117 a barrel for the first time since April, amid growing fears that the US-Israeli war against Iran could escalate further and trigger another wave of inflation.
“We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump told a rally in Florida on Friday, referring to the US military’s name for its war against Iran. His remarks came after Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and Washington’s point man on Syria, said a strike against Iran this weekend was possible. “Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely,” Barrack said during an interview while visiting the Gulf.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by as much as 3.8% to $117.45 a barrel during trading in New York on Friday, before settling at $116.72. Prices have risen by more than 10% this month.
Analysts said the rally reflected concerns that the US and Israel could intensify attacks on Iran after the US midterm elections in November, alongside dwindling global oil inventories and mounting threats to shipping routes.
Iran has stepped up attacks on tankers travelling through the Strait of Hormuz this week. Iranian state television reported on Thursday that seven oil tankers had either been struck or hit naval mines.
Trump on Iran:We may do another little Operation Epic Fury, or they will agree.If they’re smart, they will just say, “Let’s get down to business.” But I doubt they will do that because perhaps they’re not smart. https://t.co/cucvWMKi4p
— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 23, 2026
Meanwhile, the US withdrew some diplomatic staff and their relatives from Saudi Arabia amid increasing attacks by Yemen-based Houthi rebels.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, warned that crude prices could quickly reach about $150 a barrel if the conflict escalated and caused extensive damage to critical oil infrastructure.
Attacks On Ships Continue
Tensions in the region have intensified as attacks on commercial vessels threaten the movement of oil through key maritime routes.
On Thursday, Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran, near Bahrain, following an attack, Reuters reported. Fighting between Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, and the Houthis has also intensified.
The United Arab Emirates’ Ministry of Climate Change and Environment said an oil spill had been detected off the coast of Umm Al Quwain. It did not identify the tanker involved or specify what had caused the spill.
Shipping sources reported on 9 October that the supertanker Gem No. 2 had been struck by an unidentified projectile about 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera in the UAE.
Clashes between the Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen’s internationally recognised government have also intensified. The conflict follows the Houthis’ advance towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait last month, another important shipping route at the entrance to the Red Sea.
October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways, according to data compiled by a Washington-based think tank that has tracked maritime security incidents since 2017.
The US Department of Energy has authorised an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address a supply disruption affecting Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana.
The reserve is already at its lowest level since 1982, after Trump drew on it as the war disrupted supply lines. Former President Joe Biden also tapped the reserve following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Germany’s national oil stockpiling agency, EBV, has issued a tender to sell diesel, heating oil and crude oil from strategic reserves. The move marks Germany’s first release of oil from its reserves since G7 countries agreed to do so at the start of October under pressure from Trump.
Elsewhere, Libya’s National Oil Corporation said on Thursday that a pipeline valve connecting the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya port had been shut, reducing production at both fields.
Russian Diesel Heads to US
A tanker carrying Russian diesel was heading towards New York, according to ship-tracking data, marking the first shipment of Russian diesel bound for the US since Moscow and Washington reached an export agreement.
Trump announced the deal this month as part of efforts to bring down rising diesel prices ahead of the US midterm elections on 3 November.
